Friday, November 27, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Investor's Corner: Cut Stock Losses At 7%-8% In All Cases
Investor's Corner: Cut Stock Losses At 7%-8% In All Cases
- Victor Reklaitis
- On 6:32 pm EST, Tuesday November 24, 2009
As basketball season starts up again, countless coaches are no doubt shouting out this principle to their teams during practice: Defense wins championships.
In that same vein, knowing how to play defense is really what makes for a winning investment portfolio.
You can't always be on target with every stock that you pick.
But if you've got a sound strategy for selling losers, then you'll be ahead of the game.
"The whole secret to winning big in the stock market is not to be right all the time, but to lose the least amount possible when you're wrong," says IBD founder and Chairman William J. O'Neil in his book "How to Make Money in Stocks."
O'Neil adds that it's easy to tell when you're wrong. It's when a stock falls below the price that you paid for it, he says.
"Each point 20hat your favorite brainchild falls below your cost increases both the chance that you're wrong and the price that you're going to pay for being wrong," he says in his book.
So, always cut your losses at 7% or 8% from your purchase price, regardless of circumstances.
Research into the most successful stocks has found that market winners rarely fall more than 8% from their proper buy points.
Importance Of Cutting Losses
Moreover, as losses extend beyond 8%, the rebound needed to get back to break-even just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
An 8% loss requires a gain of just 8.7%. But a 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get even, and a 33% loss requires a 50% rise.
It gets even worse after that. A 50% loss needs a 100% gain to get back to break-even, and a 75% loss means that you need a 300% rise.
Another point 15 keep in mind is that you don't have to wait for a loss to hit 7% or 8% before you sell.
For example, you may want to get out at a 3% loss when the overall market is under distribution.
O'Neil notes: "If you're in a bear market like 2008 and you buy any stocks at all, you might get only a few 10% or 15% gains, so I'd move quickly to cut every single loss automatically at 3%, with no exceptions."
Investors might want to consider following a 3-1 ratio for taking profits vs. cutting losses.
That means if you're taking some 20% to 25% gains, then cut your losses at 7% or 8%. But if you're taking profits of just 10% to 15%, then get out at a 3% loss.
What about if you pyramided into a stock (which means buying some initial shares, then adding smaller amounts as the stock rises)? How does the 7%-8% sell rule apply in that case?
You have a choice if you bought shares in increments. You can scale out, selling at a 7% or 8% loss for each purchase, or just sell all of your shares at once.
Mindray Medical's (NYSE:MR - News) action in the summer of 2008 offers an example of how to minimize losses using the 7%-8% sell rule.
The stock broke out of a base, moving decisively beyond a buy point 15f 42.10 (point 1).
But quickly after that, in early August 2008, Mindray dropped more than 8% below that buy point 16oint 2).
An investor with a sound sell strategy would have sold all shares at that time -- no hesitation.
Cutting your losses then would have prevented further pain. By November 2008, the maker of medical gear had plunged even more, hitting a low of 12.31.
© Investor's Business Daily, Inc. 2009. All Rights Reserved.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Paper: Technical Analysis Around the World
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1181367
Abstract:
Technical analysis is not consistently profitable in the 49 countries that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that technical analysis compliments other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation.
Keywords: Technical Analysis, Quantitative, Market Timing
YouTube: Technical Analysis walkthrough videos
http://www.youtube.com/user/Daytradervideos
PDF: Technical Analysis Plain and Simple 3rd Edition (2010)
http://www.filedownloadfull.com/forums/f7/technical-analysis-plain-simple-charting-markets-934961/
Also, as a general reference site, there's a whole bunch of eBooks available for download here:
http://www.filedownloadfull.com/forums/f7/
Saturday, October 31, 2009
ChartPatterns.com
Great site that not only has examples and tutorials on chart patterns (pennant, ascending triangles, etc.) but also a 'stock of the week' examples that outline what, and what to do with it.
Friday, October 30, 2009
List of (all?) ETFs
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/leveraged-etfs.html
Lock in the Gains: How High Probability Traders Exit ETF Trades
Lock in the Gains: How High Probability Traders Exit ETF Trades
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/etfs/commentary/etfs/Lock-in-the-Gains-How-High-Probability-Traders-Exi-82609.cfmLock in the Gains: How High Probability Traders Exit ETF Trades
- By David Penn
- On 9:49 am EDT, Thursday October 29, 2009
With the dollar retreating after its overbought bounce and stocks and commodities advancing in the first few hours of trading on Thursday, now is a good time for ETF traders to focus on how to exit an ETF trade.
This is important for all ETF traders, whether you trade ETF PowerRatings, our High Probability ETF Trading strategies or simply use our research to help guide your own short-term, ETF trading. Knowing how to exit an ETF position is as fundamental a skill as entering an ETF trade. And in the same way that there are a variety of ways to take a trade on an ETF after it has pulled back, there are also a number of ways to properly exit an ETF trade. Being a discipline, professional-caliber trader means being as comfortable taking trades as exiting trades.
For a refresher on tactics for entering ETF trades, click here to read Larry Connors' Trading Lesson of the Day, "How to Correctly Trade Stocks and ETFs, Part 2".
Now let's look at a pair of strategies on how to exit an ETF trade.
The 5-Day Moving Average
The 5-day moving average exit is one of our most popular ways to exit an ETF trade. By waiting for an ETF bought on pullback to rally and close above its 5-day moving average, high probability ETF traders are exiting the ETF trade on strength - the goal of every mean reversion trade. Remember, as Larry Connors says, high probability trading is about "buying the selling and selling the buying." This means that when an ETF bought on pullback, or bought when its ETF PowerRatings was 8, 9 or 10 recovers and shows strength, it is time for the high probability trader to exit the ETF trade, lock in any gains and move on to the next opportunity.
After pulling back into oversold territory, the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (AMEX:SPY - News) rallied to close above its 5-day moving average soon afterward, providing an excellent opportunity to exit the ETF trade profitably.
The 2-Period RSI
Using the 2-Period RSI as a tactic for exiting an ETF trade is perhaps our favorite approach. While the 5-day moving average exit is an excellent way to exit an ETF trade, there can be instances in which the 5-day moving average exit will call for an exit sooner than the 2-period RSI. In this way, in addition to being relatively simpler to use, the 5-day moving average also can be a relatively conservative approach to exiting ETF trades.
In this example with the iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSE:EWZ - News), waiting for the ETF to close with a 2-period RSI of more than 70 to exit helps improve gains on the trade. The numbers 8, 9 and 10 reflect EWZ's ETF PowerRatings during the pullback.
To exit an ETF trade using the 2-period RSI, high probability traders should wait for the ETF that have taken a position in to close with its 2-period RSI above 70. In exiting the ETF trade after the RSI has closed above 70, traders are waiting for the previously oversold ETF to become overbought. This is another way of "buying the selling and selling the buying." Because an overbought market represents a market that has become saturated - if not supersaturated - with buyers, waiting until that moment to exit an ETF trade is an excellent way to "sell the buying" and to the resumption in demand for the ETF as an opportunity for profit-taking.
High probability ETF trading requires a few things. But having a quantified, disciplined approach to entering and exiting ETF trades is near the top of the list. Sticking to a coherent strategy that allows you to enter and exit ETF trades the same way every time is key to being a winning, successful high probability trader.
David Penn is Editor in Chief at TradingMarkets.com.Best-Charts TA software
http://www.stock-anal.com/
Sunday, October 18, 2009
PDF: John J. Murphy - Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets
PDF: John J. Murphy - Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets
http://w13.easy-share.com/1230440.html
Wait ~30 seconds, type in the security word and voila
Friday, October 16, 2009
PDF: A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street
A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street
Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay
http://press.princeton.edu/books/lo/Monday, October 12, 2009
http://www.finviz.com/
Good section for newbs, and great section on chart analysis (of recent charts)
http://decisionpoint.com/
Technical Analysis software that I use right now... There are obvious limitations to the software, such as 3-year (EOD) historical data (up to 10 yrs if you pay), and no TSX/TSX-V data feeds. Great to draw trend lines, fibonacci lines, etc.
www.ChartNexus.com
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Japanese Candlestick Patterns
http://www.masterdata.com/CandleStick/index.html